My parents and I got a chance to listen to portions of speeches by Clinton, Obama, McCain, and Huckabee tonight.
Clinton: Certainly not a bad speaker, but trying far too hard to smile all the time. A lot of “I”‘s and usual promises.
Obama: Pushed the usual promises in better wrapping, actually said he’d have a tough time achieving his goals. As good an orator as advertised. Too much “hope” talk.
McCain: Was obviously reading his speech, and was completely laughable.
Huckabee: At least he didn’t use cue cards, but he was mainly talking about how he wasn’t mathematically eliminated. Not a good sign.
Oh, yeah, Obama and McCain swept the primaries tonight.
Prediction: Obama will be the next president. I’m confident enough to wager small amounts of money on it. This means that he will defeat Clinton, then McCain.
1. Why Obama will defeat Clinton
- The Clinton campaign expected to have the nomination wrapped up by Super Tuesday so spent a lot of money quickly. Hillary will be at a relative disadvantage in money the rest of the way.
- People tend to like Obama the person, and not everyone knows him. As more time goes on, more people will find out about him, increasing his strength.
- Clinton now seems to be relying on March 4, when Texas and Ohio go to vote. While she won’t be embarrassed, Obama’s momentum in carrying many smaller states will give him enough votes in these larger states to maintain an advantage. (Something like how Giuliani’s Florida strategy was a failure.)
- While Clinton currently has a large advantage in superdelegates, it’s hard to see her increasing her percentage of this group. Obama will steal some.
- Obama’s younger, a better orator, and is more likable. Yes, this stuff counts.
2. Why Obama will defeat McCain
- People like image. Reading from cue cards in an obvious manner just isn’t going to cut it.
- Conservatives are sabotaging McCain and will suppress the turnout he needs to win. Liberals have no such beefs with Obama.
- Bush gave his stamp-of-approval for the poor guy.
- Just being Republican will lose some votes this time around.
- McCain will be painted as “old Washington”, which will hurt more than Obama being portrayed as too inexperienced.