The BCS is better than the playoffs when it comes to determining a “true” national champion this year.
To put it in the simplest terms, a playoff would have meant that LSU would have had to play even more games to win the championship. People forget this when arguing for a playoff. Each additional game is a chance for LSU to lose what almost everyone agrees they deserve.
Let’s see what 4- and 8-team playoffs would have meant mathematically.
Hypothetical Numbers #1: Let’s be incredibly generous and say LSU is so good, they would beat any top 8 team 90% of the time.
Under the BCS, LSU would have a 90% chance to be crowned national champions.
In a 4-team playoff, it drops to 81%.
In an 8-team playoff, that drops again to 72%.
Hypothetical Numbers #2: Something a bit closer to reality, but still generous: LSU would beat Alabama 60% of the time, OK St 70% of the time, and the rest of the top 8 80% of the time.
Under the BCS, LSU has a 60% chance or 70% chance to be crowned national champions (depending on who ends up #2).
The math for the playoff systems is more difficult. In a 4-team system, LSU would be playing #4 then the winner of Alabama vs OK St. The chance of LSU winning the championship is somewhere between 48% and 56%. While the exact number depends on the odds of Alabama vs. OK St., it’s not much better than a coin flip.
In an 8-team system, obviously, it’s even worse. If LSU gets lucky and doesn’t have to play #2 or #3, they would have only a 51% chance to win all 3 games. The odds are somewhere between 38% and 51%, depending on the odds of #2 and #3 making it to the national title game.
I’m well aware playoff proponents will argue that the playoffs are better anyway because things are decided “on the field”. And that’s fine, as long as they are aware of what they are getting. There are simply too few games played during the football season to have a high degree of confidence that a “true” national champion was crowned, whatever the system.
I am boycotting all NCAA sports nowadays, but the math stuff really brings out the nerd in me!
So, how about this: First dump all the “historical” conferences that are currently cutting each other’s throats to steal schools, and make up six, 11-team regional conferences in the “BBCS” (Big Bucks Championship Series). Everyone else can go into the ASACS (Actual Student-Athletes Championship Series). Every year, the bottom finishers in each BBCS conference get booted downstairs, and the top six ASACS teams that want to get moved up.
Everyone plays 10 conference games plus one additional game (could be a traditional rival not in conference, or other). After this 11-game schedule, the six conference winners plus two wild cards play an eight-game play-off. Everyone except the six losers gets an 12th (“bowl”) game with some product placement, like the “Levitra Erectile Dysfunction Cure Bowl.”
The Championship Game (say, “The Big Business BBCS Championship Game Sponsored By Cheese Whiz, The Best Imitation Chess-Flavored Product EVAH!”) would still be the 14th game for the two teams, just as now. There are 30 bowl+playoff games for the schools to cash in on. You could have the play-offs during December instead of waiting around with your thumbs up your arses for 30 days or so before the big games. You could end the illusion that big-time college football has anything to do with college!
There would even be a chorus of bellyaching about the wild-cards to provide controvesy and endless chat on sports radio and team internet forums! The unnamed members of the Secret Committee to choose the two teams could meet in an Undisclosed Location and announce them via urgent Live Coverage by every major network!
Donnie, I believe I have answered all of your objections…I really, especially like the part about six teams being demoted. So Euro-Futbol. It ensures that my Plan will never actually be adopted, because what University President actually wants to compete for a place on the Gravy Train and the centi-millions of $ currently provided by the unpaid labor?
The NCAA can call me if they want to hire me to put my plan in place. That’s 671-555-BUST. I’ll be standing by.
I go to a school that is part of the “BBCS” system, and football has helped pay for some spiffy new science buildings and equipment for the biological research into Parkinson’s and other degenerative diseases that my university does. We’ve won some pretty prestigious awards for it, too.
Football money also went into refurbishing the physics/astronomy observatory, so big-bucks football is A-OK with me.
i want to make sure i don’t use any bowl that’s associated with erectile dysfunction. in fact i want to wash every bowl in my house now. yes i know it’s not the same kind of bowl. still.
i’m unclear how universities allocate their funds; im sure it’s different from place to place. Looks like Katrushka’s school did some good with it. My alma mater (UT Austin) is also a football shrine of sorts but the last time I checked, my Banned Books and Novel Ideas class still had desks from the 70s. I know this because some of the graffiti on them was dated. And at that time (about ten years ago now) our football program was easily pulling in seven figures. So…while i’m pretty sure athletics threw some of that money around, none of it went to liberal arts.
College football is so complicated. I thought it was just who won the most games – but apparently HOW MUCH YOU WIN BY is also important, along with who you play with and the standings before and after each game. I quit after finally understanding what a “down” was.
Well, I don’t know about departments like English or history or theatre at my school…I would bet they don’t get a lot of football money simply because we’re not known for those departments. But we ARE well-known for our research in genetics and disease, and our observatory hadn’t been changed since sometime in the 40s, so…
As an English major, I also want to say that English simply doesn’t require as much investment, beyond making sure the building stays up, that faculty and grad students are well-compensated and can attend conventions, and that the book-printing press (tangentially part of the English department) doesn’t break down.
K–happy to hear at least some of the megabucks went to something related to academics. Let me ask you, though, why does the coach at a state university, basically a government employee, make more $ than the Governor, POTUS, President of the University and six full professors combined? Let us Ponder that…
@Robert: I suspect you will be standing by the phone for quite some time…
But I love the relegation idea…not only for the NCAA, but for the pros as well. Some would complain that it’s relatively easy for top schools to stay at the top. But that’s not so much different from how it is now.
my professor at the time had two other jobs and eventually went to the private sector doing something like event planning. sad. she was an excellent educator.
as for the earnings… hmmm.
My favorite professor: “I would give you the day off, but they’re watching me too closely.”